Obama, the economy and the recession

[Bob]

Obama even admitted right now is not the time to increase taxes even on the wealthy. I'm not talking as someone who, or who's family, makes anywhere near the 250k. I do know that yes, in the long run, those tax hikes on wealthy CEOs will be beneficial. But we're talking short term to stabilize the economy.

Oh, and the BIG TAX that everyone kinda shuts up about...Capital Gains tax. Regardless of your income levels, if you make a profit on the market, you would be taxed anywhere around 23 to 28 percent by Obama. McCain said he'd keep the level at 15% and actually temporarily reduce the tax to 7.5% for one year. That is crucial and something that influences me greatly, being that I will be working on trading floors and expecting much of my income to be through the market. I can understand an income tax, but the idea of taxing people who offer liquidity and monetary funds for companies to create products is absurd to me.

[MaxFly]

Oh, and the BIG TAX that everyone kinda shuts up about...Capital Gains tax. Regardless of your income levels, if you make a profit on the market, you would be taxed anywhere around 23 to 28 percent by Obama.

The key question here is how many average americans have money invested in the stock market outside of structured savings programs. We already know that Obama won't raise taxes on 401Ks, mutual funds, and other savings accounts...

McCain said he'd keep the level at 15% and actually temporarily reduce the tax to 7.5% for one year. That is crucial and something that influences me greatly, being that I will be working on trading floors and expecting much of my income to be through the market. I can understand an income tax, but the idea of taxing people who offer liquidity and monetary funds for companies to create products is absurd to me.

Another important issue to note... The 15% tax rate only kicks in after you have owned a stock for more than a year. If you buy and sell a stock within a year, whatever capital gain you have is taxed at your income rate. Also, a reduction in the capital gains tax rate to 7.5% will likely have both positive and negative effects on the markets. It would likely offer a temporary boost in investments, but it would also introduce a great deal of volatility to the market, with large upswings and down swings because of a great deal of activity.

[Bob]

It would be advantageous for people like me, who are 20 years old and can invest with little tax on long term investments. I disagree volatility would increase with an increase in liquidity. Liquidity would ease credit worries, and thus free up the rates at which banks loan to each other.

[Schnazz]

McCain said he'd keep the level at 15% and actually temporarily reduce the tax to 7.5% for one year. That is crucial and something that influences me greatly, being that I will be working on trading floors and expecting much of my income to be through the market.

So you want to vote for the guy who'll make your tax rate 7.5% with no social security taken out while other folks kick in like 40% all told? That's just a wee bit self serving.

[Bob]

Wait...wait. So every person voting for Obama because he/she wants a tax cut or a healthcare plan is self-serving?

Are you voting for the candidate who will best help you?

Or are you voting against your own self-interest?

Edited October 22, 2008 by Bob

[MaxFly]

It would be advantageous for people like me, who are 20 years old and can invest with little tax on long term investments. I disagree volatility would increase with an increase in liquidity. Liquidity would ease credit worries, and thus free up the rates at which banks loan to each other.

What do you consider a long term investment? If the 7.5% tax rate kicks in next March for instance and will be instituted for the short term... let's say a year... whatever investments you make between now and March are the only investments that will possibly have that 7.5% capital gains tax rate. If you sell before a year, those gains will be taxed at your income rate, if you sell after the 7.5% rate expires in March on 2010, you'll be taxed at the 15 or whatever percentage it reverts too. It won't be very advantageous. If your plan is to be a day trader, it won't be advantageous at all.

And yes, volatility would increase. If people are given the option of selling early at a lower tax liability, many will. They'd want to secure as much of their money as possible before the tax rate reverts to what it was. The overall goal of the measure is to provide people an impetus to invest, but what McCain isn't taking into account is that there are many people who will pull out a lot of their money in order to take advantage of the lower tax rate. The measure also encourages people to sell. I have a few investments through an online broker that I would certainly sell if given a chance to at a lower tax rate. I'd expect that many who own shares of those same companies would do the same. I'd sell my shares, wait for the worth of the company stock to plummet and then stabalize as others do the same, and then rebuy at a lower price.

[MaxFly]

McCain said he'd keep the level at 15% and actually temporarily reduce the tax to 7.5% for one year. That is crucial and something that influences me greatly, being that I will be working on trading floors and expecting much of my income to be through the market.

So you want to vote for the guy who'll make your tax rate 7.5% with no social security taken out while other folks kick in like 40% all told? That's just a wee bit self serving.

Schnazz, can you imagine what would have happened if partial privatization of social security had gone through. SS is already broken, but with the way the stock market has collapsed of late, think of what would have happened to people's savings that were diverted from SS into the market. :shakehead:

[MaxFly]

Wait...wait. So every person voting for Obama because he/she wants a tax cut or a healthcare plan is self-serving?

Are you voting for the candidate who will best help you?

Or are you voting against your own self-interest?

I don't think McCain's plan will be helpful to you in the long term or the short term... it will only be helpful for as long as the 7.5% rate is in effect.

The key here is that regardless of the 7.5% rate or the 15% rate, you'll be buying and selling stock any way. The 7.5% rate isn't going to convince you to buy more stock, it's just going to make you more money. This will be the same for a lot of other investors.

[Bob]

Wait...wait. So every person voting for Obama because he/she wants a tax cut or a healthcare plan is self-serving?

Are you voting for the candidate who will best help you?

Or are you voting against your own self-interest?

I don't think McCain's plan will be helpful to you in the long term or the short term... it will only be helpful for as long as the 7.5% rate is in effect.

The key here is that regardless of the 7.5% rate or the 15% rate, you'll be buying and selling stock any way. The 7.5% rate isn't going to convince you to buy more stock, it's just going to make you more money. This will be the same for a lot of other investors.

YES. But a higher rate of 28% would create a prohibitive nature to buying stocks, as you will need more money to gain the same profit. Thus, it limits the small time investor, like a 20 some year old, from investing.

[Hero1]

I wouldn't want to be buying stock at the moment anyway, unless you want to lose money

[Bob]

I wouldn't want to be buying stock at the moment anyway, unless you want to lose money

This is THE IDEAL TIME TO BUY, if you don't need your money in the next couple of years. Most people buy when the market is doing well and sell in a panic during a downturn. That results in a net loss. This is a 'bargain' market as Buffet stated earlier in the week. Unless you are a senior citizen or someone who expects to be paying large amounts of medical costs (that would sap your paycheck and insurance), this is the time to invest (buy low, sell high).

It's also very advantageous for quick sellers since beta (volatility) is high. If you can time right, you can make strong profits in relatively short time (it's also quite risky).

Edited October 22, 2008 by Bob

[Schnazz]

Wait...wait. So every person voting for Obama because he/she wants a tax cut or a healthcare plan is self-serving?

Are you voting for the candidate who will best help you?

Or are you voting against your own self-interest?

You're right, some of the people who vote for Obama are doing so purely for selfish reasons. Not all of them are though, my voting isn't in line with my own short term self interests. I'm a liberal Democrat but I fit many of the stereotypes for a conservative Republican. My wife and I are both pretty successful professionals and we do pretty well financially. We have health insurance and the cost of our premiums and deductibles would have to rise a LOT faster than they have been before it would alter our standard of living. We have investments that could benefit from a 7.5% tax rate. Shoot, we're not planning on taking any money out of our retirement funds for quite some time, so even the faltering market helps us since we're still investing.

The reason why I'm a Democrat is because it's not right that I'm living this well and others aren't. I may not have been born on third base, but I was at least taught how to play the game, and that's a hell of a lot more than a lot of people were born with. It's not right that I have more "disposable income" than one in four families have to straight live off of. It's not right that my medical bills for my son's birth would take ever penny of the average workers income for two years. It's not right that my son will get the best health care and education, simply because I am his father, while the average US kid would fair much better in any other first world nation and even a few third world nations.

The reason why I'm a Democrat is because it's not right that people are hated, abused, and downtrodden through no fault of their own. It's not right that I'm allowed to marry the love of my life and others are not simply because the person who I'm married to has the "right" body parts. It's not right that the religious beliefs of the few allow mythology be taught as science in classrooms across this country. It's not right that birth control education is ignored and instead failed methods of abstinence only education are used.

Not one of these issues directly touches my life, but I'm lucky, I have a great life. The reason I'm why I'm a Democrat is because I want everyone's life to be better as well.

[Schnazz]

McCain said he'd keep the level at 15% and actually temporarily reduce the tax to 7.5% for one year. That is crucial and something that influences me greatly, being that I will be working on trading floors and expecting much of my income to be through the market.

So you want to vote for the guy who'll make your tax rate 7.5% with no social security taken out while other folks kick in like 40% all told? That's just a wee bit self serving.

Schnazz, can you imagine what would have happened if partial privatization of social security had gone through. SS is already broken, but with the way the stock market has collapsed of late, think of what would have happened to people's savings that were diverted from SS into the market. :shakehead:

No doubt man, that would be hurting a LOT of people right now. This market, and specifically the bankrupt companies, are exactly why social security (and medicare and medicaid) should exist. Right now a lot of hard working people lost a lot of security and years off of their retirement by "playing it safe" and investing in stable companies. (see also Enron, World Com, etc...) There should be safety nets in place to catch people. Not everyone deserves a mansion and to live to be 125 years old, but everyone deserves a roof over their heads, healthy food, heat in the winter, an education, and basic preventative medicine.

[Hero1]

You are nuts the market has a long way to go to reach the bottom. No way I'd be buying now...if McCain wins you'll be waiting a lit longer for a return.. Palin is a very dangerous woman and to ignore all of that because of her stance on abortion is crazy..that's an extreme stance of hers as well..if Hitler was running for president and opposed abortion would u vote for him?

I wouldn't want to be buying stock at the moment anyway, unless you want to lose money

This is THE IDEAL TIME TO BUY, if you don't need your money in the next couple of years. Most people buy when

the market is doing well and sell in a panic during a downturn. That results in a net loss.

This is a 'bargain' market as Buffet stated earlier in the week. Unless you are a senior citizen or someone who expects to be paying large amounts of medical costs (that would sap your paycheck and insurance), this is the time to invest (buy low, sell high).

It's also very advantageous for quick sellers since beta (volatility) is high. If you can time right, you can make strong profits in relatively short time (it's also quite risky).

[Bob]

You are nuts the market has a long way to go to reach the bottom. No way I'd be buying now...if McCain wins you'll be waiting a lit longer for a return.. Palin is a very dangerous woman and to ignore all of that because of her stance on abortion is crazy..that's an extreme stance of hers as well..if Hitler was running for president and opposed abortion would u vote for him?

To time the market just right for long term investing is problematic. We know it will rebound and we are pretty sure the Dow can reach at least 12k. So, it would be beneficial to invest now. Also, the actual influence of a presidential election on the market is minimal. The policies implemented take 1 to 3 years from a president to filter down to the economy anyway.

Her 'extreme' stance is a consistant stance. Apparently, people are more reasonable if they think something at 3 months of development is more important than something that is 2 months and 28 days of development. It's really absurd to devalue life based upon arbitrary timelines and visual images. The most distinct points we know regarding life are conception and birth, and if you believe birth is the moment of life, then it's only reasonable you support abortion as an option. If you believe conception as the start of life, then you can't honestly play numbers games with the life.

And no, if Hitler was running for president and opposed to abortion, it would be a genocide of one kind he supported, another he opposed. The one he supported obviously has caused wars, death beyond the original genocide and thus he promoted an overwhelming culture of death. Abortion has not caused wars or tyranny, and thus would be the lesser of two evils in this specific instance.